Wales v South Africa: Preview

It seems unusual that Wales are playing at Twickenham while two other teams are playing in Cardiff. Oh wait, they didn’t expect Wales to get through right? Should have been England and Australia both playing at Twickenham. Ah well…the best laid plans of mice and morons. Hilarious, except for the fact that the Welsh need all the help they can get.

Since the opening shock loss to Japan, Heyneke Meyer and his South African coaching team have reverted to basics. Use their big men, destroy smaller men. It has been the Springbok style since I remember their re-emergence from isolation. Men like Venter, Andrews, Pienaar, Os Du Randt made it an art form and latterly Burger and Vermeulen together with the Du Plessis brothers have shown that the collision is still something rugby players long for. Not for the Springboks this sleight of hand, fast feet, hitting the gap bullshit. They will kick for territory and smash you into submission with their towering line out and jackhammer scrum. It worked against Samoa, it worked against Scotland and destroyed the USA. There is no reason to believe they will do any different on Saturday.

Funnily enough the Welsh actually beat this South African team last autumn by 12 – 6. It was an unusual victory but one they will clutch on to desperately to motivate their injury decimated squad. The head to head makes dismal reading. Wales have won 2 of the 30 games played while South Africa have won 27. What a time it would be for Wales to win their third.

Will it happen? Unlikely, but not impossible.

The scrum is an important area of the game. Wales were taken apart by Australia and the Springbok scrum is decidedly better. On the plus side Taulupe Faletau has been excellent with one of the most difficult core skills of a no. 8, i.e. – picking the ball up at the back of a retreating scrum. If the Welsh manage to hook channel one ball things will be interesting. If they don’t Pollard could punish Wales.

The line out will be evenly matched. Although Lood De Jager and Eben Etzebeth are excellent young forwards the experience of Alun Wyn Jones in the line out is irreplaceable. With the absence of Matfield, Jones – the Welsh captain – will have a massive role in running the defensive line out. If he is successful it might cripple the South African plans.

Dan Lydiate returns for Wales on the blindside and the physical confrontation between the two understated no. 8’s will also be good to watch. With Warburton tipping the scales on Burger in terms of pace, Wales may just have the edge in this contest as South Africa miss the brilliant Marcel Coetzee.

Every match of this calibre needs the fly half to perform, and although Bigger has been excellent with the boot, he has not been able to open up the midfield. Roberts is one dimensional and Tyler Morgan will be under pressure against the best 13 in the world at the moment. If Wales can bring George North into the game more often, and test the likes of Bryan Habana aerially something may bounce for them. Gareth Anscombe was woeful against Australia and this stage may just be a little beyond an accomplished New Zealand first division player.

Contrast that with the best young 10 – 13 combination in the world. Pollard – inexplicably dropped for the Japan loss – together with De Allende and Kriel have formed a formidable partnership in midfield. All of them can do it all and are prepared to work hard in defence. Kriel’s blemish was getting brushed off by a Herculean Amanaki Mafi against Japan but has been excellent apart from that. As much as JDV brought back the likeability to a deliberately mean Springbok outfit, his departure has made Meyer’s headache recede. No doubt the great Saffa captain will be cheering loud.

Wales have devastating wingers in North and Cuthbert. More talented I would think than the free scoring Habana and Pietersen. The latter two profit from playing behind a monster pack. But North can be unleashed around the fringes, he may upset the Springbok defensive pattern. Either way though, the pressure will be on the two kickers, unless Will Le Roux can spark some magic. It will be a hard grind between two teams that are under different pressures. It will be hard grind, not pretty at all. But South Africa, unless Meyer’s mental preparation deserts them, or Wayne Barnes has a day to remember, should win.