One Escape Too Many

Bledisloe 3 was a game for the ages. It’s the stuff that kids will remember for ages and older fans will talk about over numerous beers for time immemorial. It’s superb television. But I would be very unhappy if Steve Hansen wasn’t very unhappy at that last performance.

Twice in a row now the All Blacks have been vulnerable against a team that have been willing to take them on. At the breakdown and out wide. To say that they emerged second best in both areas of competition over the last two games would not be an exaggeration. They were undone by the directness of Pollard and physicality of Kuridrani. The midfield defence together with the wolf like hunger of the pack at the breakdown has let the team down. The famed aggression at the contact and scrap for every ball that was led by Thorn and Kaino at the last World Cup campaign has been obviously missing. Sam Whitelock has suddenly got very one dimensional and the front row – with the exception of Coles – has not been putting in a shift around the park. There has been a sense of laziness bordering on complacency creeping into the All Black play, which is very uncharacteristic.

Richie McCaw and Conrad Smith however, have been working hard. The incredible captain one put in three successive tackles over three phases of Australian play. His pace maybe a little off, but nous with which he reads the game is unparalleled. His ability to snuff out attacks and change the intensity in defence is amazing. However, he is getting too little support from Read and Messam. Both players are too interested in ball running, rather than getting it back. The combination of the third row is not working and it’s largely due to Liam Messam wanting to play the glamour role. He is not playing a no. 6 role and it’s something that needs to change. Both Jerome Kaino and Richard Hill were crucial to their sides world cup winning campaigns. Added to that the Coetzee/Vermuelen combination for South Africa is doing some sterling work as is the Higginbotham/Fardy axis for Australia. The Read and Whoever Else option is not really helping the captain out.

The losses have also heightened the absence of a good pivot. Many have been screaming the praises of Beuaden Barrett, but I’m not really joining that chorus quite yet. He reminds me of a young Grant Fox. But that’s only in build and blondeness. His kicking game is not yet controlling, and while he’s got pace to burn it’s pretty obvious that Pollard is the better fly half and then some. While cutting open a hapless Argentina is to his credit, the performance of Barrett in South Africa and Australia, where he was deliberately targeted was not upto scratch. He failed to get the backline moving and it was only with Colin Slade and Same Cane coming on that there was a real injection of pace into the attack. The inexperience at 9,10 and 12 is just not good enough. Smith is coming along nicely at scrum half but without the experience of Weepu or Cowan to bring on, it’s not entirely comforting.

South Africa on the other hand have gone with the likes of Botha and Burger for the last 20 minutes. And with that sort of experience who can argue with Henneke Meyer. Hansen has to make a quick decision whether his third scrum half option is going to be an uncapped youngster or whether he’s going to revert to one of the older hands. If I were him, I’d do the latter.

While Aaron Cruden may not be the most experienced player in the world, he was part of the All Blacks World Cup winning squad. Also, he led New Zealand to the Junior World Cup, so he knows a thing or two about winning. Also, the AB’s have been a little bit more in control when he’s started games. Because his game has a few dimensions to it he seems better positioned than Barrett, at the moment, to start at fly half. The fitness of Daniel Carter will render this entire debate irrelevant, but there’s no guarantee he will be fit. Watch Dan Carter boss the group game against the French at Eden Park in 2011, and then watch the All Blacks almost stumble against the same opposition in the Final, it was ample testament to the quality that Carter brings to any team. His vision, control and ability to change the tempo in a flash is not something either Cruden or Barrett have. Yet. Cruden perhaps has a few more strings to his bow.

Let’s make no mistake, the RWC is going to be ugly. The high risk wide game that teams are resorting to now, will not be the sort of rugby that we see at the business end of that tournament. We are unlikely to see scintillating line breaks and dramatic running. So putting too much emphasis on that skill set, should not be encouraged. Kick returns, territory and bringing your big men into the game is something that will pay dividends. Julian Savea for instance, only touched the ball in any meaningful way in the last few movements of Bledisloe 3.That’s not his fault, that’s something the fly half should have been ensuring ages before the final minute. As much as Australia played well, New Zealand played abysmally badly. The fact that they won the game shouldn’t erase any of that.

Fekitoa was wanting in defence, and his combination with Conrad Smith – or lack of it – is worrying. He scored a final minute try, but that was a try any player in that position should have scored. He didn’t create a lot with ball in hand, and more worryingly allowed several line breaks inside him. SBW better come to the party.

The NH tour is going to be interesting from a coaching point of view. Watching Hansen’s moves will give us a few insights into what he thinks his best xv is. At the moment he’s not worried too much about winning games. He’s worried about picking players. My worry is that his worry might be a little too late.