All Blacks Lose the Battle. Can They Win the War?

So the All Blacks lost. If you read my blog – which you really should – you’d not have been surprised. Because I told you so didn’t I? As a result I was nonplussed also. I expected the loss and it came. Could it have been prevented? Of course. All losses are prevented in theory, but realistically, probably not. With the mental intensity of having to go 20 games unbeaten, the disappointment of not breaking the winning streak against Australia and the rigours of travel to Argentina and back, the odds were stacked against a fresh Springbok side which has finally discovered its combinations.

The All Blacks lost the game in the first half. The breakout try for Hougaard was one that you don’t see the All Blacks concede very often. In fact, it’s worrying given the ease with which Cornal Hendricks cut them open in the New Zealand leg of the game too. But the defence was pretty ragged this time around. Serfontein was allowed too much space and Conrad thought there was nothing on. There wasn’t. The problem though was that there was no second line of defence with only Aaron Smith making a despairing tackle and Richie being left for dead and only Springbok support players in the frame for the last several meters. Where was Dagg, you have to ask? And where was Reid, or Kaino or Barrett and indeed Ben Smith who should have come off the opposite wing as he so often does. Tiredness, a tiny switch off. And that’s all that it takes.

For the Boks their second try was a gift. Defensive alignment was bad and Pollard got outside Joe Moody like he wasn’t even there. What were two forwards doing matched up against the lightning fly half, I don’t know. Similarly the second try was a superb individual effort by Pollard again. He stood Barrett up – he’s still not ready to start – cut inside Aaron Smith with ease, and rolled Richie’s tackle onto the try line. Keiran Read arrived too late. And he shouldn’t have. It was just there. Barrett should have got him. Aaron Smith should have got him. Richie should have hit him earlier but he’s not running that traditional seven line so close to the line, but Keiran Read should certainly have been there making a tackle assist and he wasn’t. Bad form.

The Blacks replied through some great work from the midfield. Fekitoa was superb in attack and better than Nonu on defence. Conrad Smith was strong in creating the try for Ben Smith, but it was not the Snake’s best game. But come on, even Conrad Smith has to have a bad game occasionally. I’m just glad it was a dead rubber that he chose to do it in. When I say he had a bad game, everything is relative. From Conrad’s stratospheric standards, this was an average game, with a few positional errors, some lethargy in defence and couple of inaccurate passes. I’m not sure Fekitoa is the answer to the Nonu problem. I’m not even sure SBW is, although he deserves a go. Ryan Crotty had the goods I think, and the Blacks best game was when he started in the no. 12 jersey in this Rugby Championship.

Despite the fact that the Blacks had an average game, it was really a tremendous performance by the Boks. I’ve grown to actually like this team under JDV as opposed to the team I loathed under Jon Smit. The luxury of bringing on Bakkies Botha and Schalk Burger to close out games is really something. And it’s a tactic Steve Hansen would do well to take cognisance of. Kevan Mealamu is better off the bench than starting a game. Dane Coles is by far the better player. Also whether Richie McCaw’s smarts and experience and leadership make up for an actual lack of pace, is a question that needs to be answered.

For South Africa, with Ruan Pienaar still to return from injury, the halves combination looks good. It boggles the mind how much Morne Steyn held them back, and the go forward that Pollard gives them is pretty incredible. They seem to have settled on JDV and Serfontein and the young 13 showed up his opposite number in the matchup I thought would go a long way in deciding the contest. Bryan Habana, given his age, puts in an enormous work rate. It really is unbelievable how he pops up in midfield and effects turnovers. Julian Savea probably needs to do a bit more of that before people start talking about him as being better than Jonah. Willie Le Roux is highly skilled, but perhaps not as solid and Cornal Hendriks and JP Pietersen are big boys that can hurt you. The balance of the Saffa team is looking really good.

However, like the All Blacks they too have to get their back row balance sorted out. Mohoje is surprisingly good in the line out, but not as effective around the park. Marcel Coetzee is Richard Hill with skills, and Duane Vermuelen is the best no. 8 I’ve seen in a Bok jersey. Yes, better than Tian Strauss and Bobby Skinstad. He carries the ball devastatingly, he’s low to the ground and effects turnovers and he hits people hard in tackles. He’s not a suave and silky as Kieran Reid, but he does a job. It’s a Lara v Viv Richards sort of comparison there.

For the All Blacks the third row is one of their giant problems. I do NOT understand why Kaino was put in the second row when Thrush was injured early on in the second half. It should have been Luatua that came on in the second row with Messam coming on much later in the game. I don’t understand the All Black establishment’s obsession with Messam and Nonu. They’re shit. Sorry. That’s it. Tuipolotu was not even in the mix when he was needed. Aaron Smith is a great little distributor, but his sniping – the try against Argentina was a rarity – and kicking game, leave a lot to be desired. The most worrying factor is that there seems to be no back up. Short of bringing Piri Weepu back to life, there seems little option for Steve Hansen. Kerr Barlow is not the part, especially not after his injury.

The most glaring problem though is at full back. Ben Smith was outstanding in that position and I do not understand why you would move him. Israel Dagg is a one trick pony and will not shatter defences any more. Cory Jane is more dangerous on the wing and Ben Smith should be used more often. What a player he is. He hardly figured in this game and the few times he did, he did good things. Dagg’s positional play when a team is running at you is no good. He just doesn’t read potential breaches of defence. He doesn’t size situations up and his one v one tackling is really woeful. He has to go back to Super XV and come back a better player.

The burningest question of them all though, is whether Sam Cane should come on early. I think he should. He should be a fixture on the bench and Richie should move to the blind in the 50th minute with Kaino coming off. The lad is a revelation, and great though he be, Richie should not be remembered for keeping a prodigy on the bench. The reluctance to shift him from 7 is ridiculous. He’s not going to be any less dangerous or valuable on the blind side flank, and Cane’s pace is what was missing from the defence. It’s a call that needs to be made.

Hats off to Patrick Lambie for coming on and kicking a monster penalty. Messam was unlucky to concede that, but there wasn’t really much of an effort to use his arms. I thought Wayne Barnes had a good game, and he allowed the match to be entertaining. Both teams cooperated and we had a spectacle. That the ABs were second best in the scrum is pretty obvious as well. Joe Moody is not world class and the Franks brothers were passengers. They have been becoming increasingly so. Famuina was lazy when he came on as well. The Blacks need to rustle up some competition for places in the front row and at half back so that things they can keep everyone honest.

The questions that this loss raised, were questions that have needed answering for some time now. This defeat crystallises them and doesn’t allow Hansen to sweep them under the carpet. It was a superb time for the All Blacks to lose. Hopefully they can also win at the right time. A World Cup away from home is needed to silence the legitimate criticisms.